Mexico awaits a show of López Obrador muscle, as candidate follows through with final legal challenge

Guadalajara –
Tomorrow could be the last act in the long-running Andrés Manuel López Obrador drama, or just another scene in a political stage play which has no final curtain.

The defeated PRD candidate has refused to accept an August 30 federal court ruling which declared Enrique Peña Nieto the winner of the country's July 1 presidential contest. He's called supporters into the street Sunday to stand by him.

"To recognize these election results would be a farce, and the betrayal of millions of Mexicans. Just as the other side is prepared to defend by any means a corrupt system, so we're prepared to do away with it, and to that end we'll show no quarter, nor yield any advantage," the leftist leader said on Aug. 31. How many show up in Mexico City's zócalo tomorrow afternoon will be a fair measure of AMLO's remaining influence. In the opinion of many political analysts here, now is make it or break it time for López Obrador. And even with a big turnout, which is indispensable, it's unclear what the next step is.

On a related matter the Democratic Revolution Party has announced that it will keep a promise which López Obrador made weeks ago. On July 18 the candidate said that PRD would carry its allegations of election fraud to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) if Mexico's election tribunal (TEPJF) rejected those arguments. It did so, and now PRD is appealing to the international body.

The leftist party will ask the IACHR to intervene in the matter - even though Mexico's electoral court has already delivered a final judgment against AMLO - and render a declaratory opinion in its favor. PRD insists that human rights issues are presented, and contends that millions of Mexicans were deprived of the opportunity to freely and fairly select their next president in accord with the country's constitution. The appeal will be based upon the same arguments recently litigated before the TEPJF, including claims of votes bought with Soriana gift cards, and undue influence in the electoral process by the mega Spanish language network Televisa.

PRD will ask the Inter-American Court to "review the case, and based upon the facts presented certify clear violations of the democratic process by the Mexican state," a party spokesman said last week. The IACHR would then deliver its ruling - in theory - to the TEPJF and to the federal congress, for their "proper consideration." PRD claims there is legal precedent for the international court's involvement in a domestic election, citing an allegedly similar case in Thailand in 2001.

It's unlikely that the IACHR will accept the PRD election appeal for consideration. Even if it agrees to do so, any decision on the merits would be purely advisory, and not enforceable against Mexico.