Mexico's 100 day domestic security plan? Well, there may be slight delays . . .
*Updated Jan. 25*
Guadalajara -
Enrique Peña Nieto, now 34 days into the job, made some very big promises in 2012 to capture his lifetime dream of becoming Mexico's next president. An immediate reduction in violence throughout the country (immediate as within the first 100 days of taking office), and the decrease of homicides and other serious crimes by as much as 50% once his new PRI government was up and running, were at the top of the list. A third of the self-imposed deadline has passed, and the first lab reports have come in for analysis. The results are not encouraging. Nor are they surprising (Mexican voters got suckered on drug war).
In the month which just ended, Peña Nieto's first on the job, Mexico recorded 982 organized crime executions, or an average of 32 every day. That was 33 more than in November (949), the last month of the National Action Party (PAN) administration of Felipe Calderón, who left office on Dec. 1 and now teaches at Harvard. Calderón launched Mexico's war against the enormously wealthy cartels on Dec. 11, 2006. The conflict has just entered its 73rd month, with no clear endgame strategy apparent.
On Dec. 18, Mexico's new attorney general announced that the country has 60-80 active drug cartels. Many of them have morphed into regional gangs, just as experts on both sides of the border predicted last year (Mexican super gangs will present big challenge for Enrique Peña Nieto; Cartels will morph into super gangs, says U.S. security firm). Only a day before the new PRI president told the country's national security council that the PRI strategy would "move from punishing crime to preventing it." But he offered no particulars on how that strategy would be carried out.
However the plan ultimately takes shape, it likely will require more than 100 days to implement and to show measurable signs of effectiveness - if there are any to show. (Enrique's challenging homework).
In the meantime, the stats published by press sources are more of the same depressing news:
In 2012, there were 12,394 organized crime executions - 110 more than in 2011, but 264 less than in 2010, which was the most violent year of Calderón's sexenio. His term ended with about 59,000 drug war dead, according to one media source.
In December there were 18 multiple victim executions, with more than five killed in each. The worst mass execution was in the town of Guadalupe y Calvo, Chihuahua, with 11 persons shot to death (Dec. 19 - In the land of the Sierra Tarahumara, narco traffickers wage open war against the poorest).
Jalisco and Michoacán states suffered a severe outbreak of violence the weekend before Christmas, claiming at least 30 lives, including 14 police officers (stories below). Guadalajara and its environs - including nearby Puerto Vallarta - remain among the emerging epicenters of Mexico's "new" drug war, with local and regional criminal bands pitted against one another. The security situation here will get worse before it gets better (Jalisco homicides remain unabated).
The northern state of Chihuahua, one of the nation's deadliest, reported 122 executions in December, easily capturing first place. For the fifth consecutive year, Chihuahua was the most violent state in the nation in 2012, with 2,259 executions - 18% of Mexico's organized crime murders (but they dropped 37% from 2011). The four runners up in order were Coahuila, Sinaloa, San Luis Potosí and Zacatecas.
Guerrero state (Acapulco) reported about 40 organized crime killings in December, although the grisly tally was well received there, since it marked a 60% decrease from December 2011.
Five Mexican states reported no homicides in the last month of 2012: Baja California Sur, Campeche, Tabasco, Tlaxcala and Yucatán. Colima reported only six murders in December.
Attacks against security personnel at all levels remained high last year. In December alone 33 were murdered, including five federal police officers, one state trooper, 24 city police and three soldiers.
Peña Nieto's Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) government plans to spend 47% more this year on domestic security than did Calderón in 2012.
Jan. 7 - Peña Nieto: no option but to follow Calderón strategy
Jan. 25 - In Ecatepec de Morelos, in the State of Mexico (Edomex), 52 organized crime murders have occurred since Jan. 1. A huge federal and state force is patrolling city streets, but one local resident today said of security in his neighborhood, está de la chingada. A good English translation: "it's f__ked."
Jan. 14 - In the State of Mexico (Edomex), not to be confused with the Federal District which it abuts, press sources report the discovery of 11 execution victims, with their bodies dismembered. President Peña Nieto is a former governor of Edomex.
Jan. 13 - Mexico City recorded 11 executions yesterday, the capital's most violent single day since the drug war began on Dec. 11, 2006. There were 19 executions total throughout the weekend.
Aug. 27 - Mexico, "deadliest country in the world"
Dec. 30 - Mexico's drug war, by the numbers
Dec. 29 - Mexico extends time to weed out corrupt local cops
Dec. 28 - Mexico pays enormous price for domestic insecurity
Dec. 28 - Local police resign or desert posts in Jalisco, Michoacán
Dec. 28 - Cartels declare war on Los Zetas in Cancún, foreshadowing a "bloodbath" in Riviera Maya
Dec. 25 - Death toll in Jalisco-Michoacán violence rises to 28, including 14 police officers
Dec. 24 - Christmas Eve narco violence wracks Jalisco and Michoacán, leaving 7 police officers dead
Dec. 23 - Mexico's new PRI government seeks huge increase in domestic security budget
Dec. 17 - Peña Nieto presents security plan: Mexico will "move from punishing crime to preventing it"
Dec. 8 - Extreme narco violence marks Enrique Peña Nieto's first week
Dec. 2 - Narcos send Enrique Peña Nieto a message: nothing has changed
Oct. 8 - Peña Nieto's Colombian drug czar is U.S. informant, with orders to make a deal with narcos
Sept. 6 - Peña Nieto transition team confirms: Mexican army, marines will remain on the streets
July 7 - Security consultant elaborates on "new" Mexican drug war strategy - but is it?
July 5 - Enrique Peña Nieto's Manifesto makes New York Times
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