One month into EPN's watch, everybody arrives at the same conclusion, while U.S. security firm Stratfor predicts continued violence in Monterrey, Nuevo Laredo, Guadalajara and Acapulco
Guadalajara -
Almost seven months ago, right after Enrique Peña Nieto won the July 1 presidential election, MGR told its readers that all of the talk about a new Mexican drug war strategy was just that - talk (July 7 - Security consultant elaborates on "new" Mexican drug war strategy - but is it?). MGR argued that Mexican voters had been suckered on drug war issues, which figured prominently during the spring 2012 campaign. It's not too much to say that last year's election was a referendum on the Calderón administration's handling of the nightmare-without-end conflict. Many voters were hungry for change.
At the time almost all of the "experts" on Mexican affairs were preaching a very different gospel, including many outside of this country. Just two weeks before the election, arguably the most prestigious newspaper in the United States carried a piece entitled Candidates in Mexico Signal a New Tack in the Drug War, which in essence forecast a quick abandonment of Calderón's policies once the government changed hands on Dec. 1. MGR criticized that article as an inaccurate and misleading statement of the candidates' positions, including that of Enrique Peña Nieto (New York Times got Mexican candidates' drug war strategies wrong), and predicted that no matter who won the election, there would be no fundamental change in the way the drug war was waged.
There's more. When another powerhouse of the American press roundly condemned Calderón's National Security Strategy in November 2011, excoriating his decision to use military forces to go after the cartels and organized crime, MGR pointed out why its analysis was flawed and revealed little understanding of Mexican political history (The Los Angeles Times just doesn't get it). MGR opined that the Calderón strategy had been the right one (Dec. 30, 2011).
In Mexico, five months elapse after a new president is elected until he is sworn in. During those 150 days, the president-elect himself began to sing a new tune, very different from the one he hummed during the 90 day campaign. On Monday, July 2, while ballots were still being counted, Peña Nieto's victory manifesto in the New York Times appeared, which suggested anything but a retreat from the Calderón strategy. On Sept. 6, his transition team announced that Mexico's army would stay on the streets for the indefinite future. The latter pronouncement was particularly troubling to those who had expected a jettisoning of the strategy by the new government. Peña Nieto confirmed he'd put 75,000 more federal paramilitaries on the chessboard, to improve his government's odds against the cartels.
To be sure, EPN has not officially 'fessed up that he planned to stick with Felipe's strategy all along. On Dec. 17, he presented what he called his "new" security plan, saying Mexico would "move from punishing crime to preventing it". But he offered no meaningful details, and just six days later his PRI government sought a huge increase in Mexico's domestic security budget - hardly consistent with a focus on crime prevention as opposed to crime fighting.
Today a respected Mexican journal asked, "so where's this new strategy" we've been hearing about for months? It's the same question MGRR posed almost a year ago, while EPN demonstrated his magnificent juggling abilities on the campaign trail.
And another respected Mexican journal just published an interview with a vice president of Stratfor, the U.S. global intelligence company which frequently reports on drug war issues. Fred Burton, the Stratfor veep, was quoted at length in a Reporte Indigo article entitled, "He'll have to follow the steps of Calderón." The entire interview reads like a page - like many pages - drawn from MGR archives.
Burton told Reporte Indigo that Peña Nieto essentially has no choice other than to stay the course. That shouldn't surprise anybody who looked over EPN's first report card, from December (Mexican narco violence stats after first month of new PRI administration not encouraging: 982 executions, 32 a day). It would be nice to say that things can only get better, but of course they can get much worse.
"The cartels have changed their dynamics," Burton told Indigo. "What we're seeing now is cartel against cartel, as they struggle to expand market territories and spheres of influence. From a strategic perspective, it makes things very difficult."
Burton opined negatively on the idea of removing military forces from the drug war. "The war among the main organized crime groups will continue in places like Monterrey, Nuevo Laredo, Guadalajara and Acapulco," he said. "Peña Nieto will have no option other than to leave the army on the streets for the indefinite future; he has very little flexibility." The new president has promised to do just that.
Burton's prognosis for violence in Jalisco state and Guadalajara closely matches one delivered seven months ago by another U.S. security consulting firm, Southern Pulse. Much empirical evidence of the theory has been unpleasantly delivered in recent weeks (stories below).
Burton also pointed out that Mexico's cartels have become very diversified. Their repertoire includes not only narcotics trafficking but robbery, kidnapping and extortion, both commercial and individual. That enhances their power and influence in local communities and increases revenues enormously, while fostering even more violence.
He said that Colombia's successes in dealing with cocaine cartels in the 1980s and 1990s probably could not be replicated here, because Mexico is not disposed to permitting U.S. special operations forces to operate on its territory - something which Columbia allowed for many years.
Striking a chord which will displease some, Burton observed that until drug demand is significantly reduced in the United States, "the violence in Mexico will continue."
Now everyone understands - even the New York Times and the Los Angeles Times understand - that señor Calderón's drug war has become señor Peña Nieto's drug war, and the latter intends to follow an almost identical battle script. Those who were paying attention, of course, understood it all along.
Jan. 10 - Effective immediately, Mexico is divided into five national security regions, the new administration announced today.
Jan. 13 - Mexico City recorded 11 executions yesterday, the capital's most violent day since the drug war began on Dec. 11, 2006.
Jan. 13 - The Peña Nieto administration plans to establish a national intelligence agency modeled after the American CIA, which will work in conjunction with foreign intelligence services.
Jan. 19 - In a well written article, this columnist asks what many others have: how can the new PRI government continue to claim with a straight face that it plans to implement a new drug war strategy, purportedly abandoning the Calderón approach, while it launches a 40,000 member federal militia to take on organized crime? Los gendarmes de Peña Nieto. She calls him a man of "great intellectual, social and cultural limitations."
Apr. 10 - Peña mantiene estrategia de seguridad de Calderón: Madero
Feb. 1 - HRW's condemnation of Mexican drug war reveals how little it understands conflict
Dec. 19 - Enrique's challenging homework
July 15 - Political power is ultimate goal of Mexican drug cartels, says U.S. security expert
Jan. 8 - More attacks on Jalisco police, while drug war homicides continue throughout state
Jan. 4. - Mexico's new PRI government reports many arrests and seizures in its first month
Dec. 30 - Mexico's drug war, by the numbers
Dec. 29 - Mexico extends time to weed out corrupt local cops
Dec. 28 - Mexico pays enormous price for domestic insecurity
Dec. 28 - Local police resign or desert posts in Jalisco, Michoacán
Dec. 28 - Cartels declare war on Los Zetas in Cancún, foreshadowing a "bloodbath" in Riviera Maya
Dec. 25 - Death toll in Jalisco-Michoacán violence rises to 28, including 14 police officers
Dec. 24 - Christmas Eve narco violence wracks Jalisco and Michoacán, leaving 7 police officers dead
Dec. 8 - Extreme narco violence marks Enrique Peña Nieto's first week
Dec. 2 - Narcos send Enrique Peña Nieto a message: nothing has changed
Oct. 8 - Peña Nieto's Colombian drug czar is U.S. informant, with orders to make a deal with narcos
Aug. 27 - Mexico, "deadliest country in the world"
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