One of the worst things about running for president - in any country - is that you just might win. It's a thought which may have crossed Enrique Peña Nieto's mind this week before Christmas, number three in the six year tenure he began Dec. 1. Three weeks down, 309 to go. It's intimidating.
A drowning man desperately struggling to surface makes extravagant promises to God, they say. Of course they're promises which he may quickly want to forget after drawing that first huge gulp of air. President Peña Nieto made some rather extravagant promises to Mexico during last spring's campaign, promises which he's surely reassessing. And his self-started stopwatch is already ticking away. Consider:
The president promised a new drug war strategy, but it's anything but. It builds upon and strongly resembles the National Security Strategy launched 72 months ago by Felipe Calderón, when federal forces were dispatched into Michoacán state, a wild-west Hollywood set where organized crime still runs most of everything (if just below the radar). Mexicans who haven't figured this out yet, soon will.
Peña Nieto and his drug war czar - a Colombian general whom the Mexican publication Indigo claims is a
Mexico's drug war will not be won, nor will the battle even simmer down slightly, in the next 100 days. Mexico's drug war will not be won during Peña Nieto's sexenio, any more than it could have been won during Calderón's just concluded presidency. As I have written in MGRR numerous times, "Mexico's drug war will be a long, drawn out affair. That is inevitable, because Felipe Calderón's predecessors in Los Pinos let the cancer grow untreated for every bit of 30, perhaps even 40 or 50 years. Colombia's struggle against the cocaine trade is still underway, although the horrors of the 1980s are largely history. Military experts on both sides of the border have opined that Mexico will need a decade, at minimum, to destroy the powerful drug cartels. Even that's optimistic, but there is no other way out, short of turning the country over to organized crime forces operating on an international scale."
Of course, the challenges of the drug war are greatly compounded by the neighbor who happens to live next door. To former president Porfirio Díaz (in office 1884-1911) is attributed the statement, "poor Mexico - so far from God, so close to the United States." True or not, president Calderón opined that being Mexican is like living in the same apartment building with the biggest drug addict in town (his analogy, not mine). Enrique Peña Nieto will quickly learn the same lesson, if he hasn't already. And not only does that addicted neighbor incessantly demand more drugs, he furnishes his procurers with a virtual military arsenal to help speed up and protect the shipments. At times even an odd-lot vintage shotgun ends up crossing the border, but that's a story for another day.
Not all the news is bad, however. Peña Nieto has promised to increase federal paramilitary forces by 75,000 people to go after cartel bosses and organized crime kingpins, especially in rural areas where local law enforcement ranges from weak and ineffective to virtually nonexistent. Does that sound like a new strategy to you? Me neither. It's unfortunate that Mexicans are only now learning the truth, but that's politics for you. The most disappointed will be all of those Calderón bashers north of the border.
But the new president's legacy is dependent upon much more than just adding another chapter to "Guns, Drugs and Cash" (excuse me, Professor Diamond, for being something of a title copy-cat). EPN must address the lack of jobs and the gross economic disparity in Mexico as soon as possible. Almost half the nation lives in functional poverty, millions cannot feed themselves (in a land of plenty) and good jobs, even for the well educated, are few and far between. Last April, during the presidential campaign, leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador said economic inequality is the primary cause of Mexico's insecurity I believe Peña Nieto recognizes that reality. But what will he do about it?
Get busy, Enrique. School has begun, the clock is ticking and history will soon begin grading you.
Dec. 23 - From a Yucatán newspaper: "Specialists say that Enrique Peña Nieto must take quick action to implement a security strategy which changes the (current) situation, and spend less time talking about plans and good intentions. Analysts agree that Peña Nieto and his team have to deliver results in the short term, although it's understood that his strategy, or any strategy, must also endure over the long term."
Dec. 27 - In a day trip yesterday to San Pablo del Monte, in Tlaxcala, president Peña Nieto promised a local crowd that the twin focuses of his new PRI government would be ensuring sufficient food for all and promoting job growth. "The goal is that Mexico becomes a more just and equal society, where all may enjoy a life of dignity - especially the marginalized." If only it were as easy as it sounds.
Jan. 7, 2013 - Peña Nieto: no option but to follow Calderón strategy
Dec. 25 - Death toll in Jalisco-Michoacán violence rises to 28, including 13 police officers
Dec. 24 - Christmas Eve narco violence wracks Jalisco and Michoacán, leaving 7 police officers dead
Dec. 23 - Mexico's new PRI government seeks huge increase in domestic security budget
Dec. 19 - In the land of the Sierra Tarahumara, narco traffickers wage open war against the poorest
July 23 - Enrique Peña Nieto's biggest challenges will be economy and environment, not drug cartels
May 17 - Struggle against drug cartels and organized crime will be his legacy, Felipe Calderón says
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