Sunday, July 1, 2012

Mexico's IFE, others declare Enrique Peña Nieto the winner; Josefina concedes; PRI holds on to Yucatán state governorship

Enrique Peña Nieto is declared WINNER of Mexico's 2012 presidential contest

Based on exit polls released at 8:00 p.m:
PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 42%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 31%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 23%
PNA - Gabriel Quadri de la Torre: 4%

Final pre-election poll, published June 27

8:30 p.m. - Josefina Vázquez Mota is delivering a gracious concession speech at this hour, expressing pride in being the first female candidate for president to travel so far, and thanking the millions of PANistas who worked for her. "We're all winners, because we raised our collective voice in a democratic way to be heard on the issues which matter most to Mexican families." Some here are expressing surprise that the candidate yielded less than 30 minutes after an exit poll was released. Official results from Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute aren't expected for a couple of hours, at least.

9:30 p.m. - Gabriel Quadri has yielded, adding that his campaign had proved the vitality of the New Alliance Party. Since PNA doubled its projected vote, perhaps he's right.

10:00 p.m. - Everybody's wondering aloud, what's the Manuel López Obrador camp up to? They're huddled in Mexico City, but the candidate has given no hint of when he might be delivering a word to assembled supporters and the press. AMLO has consistently said that the polls were all wrong, and that he'd win with convincing numbers.

10:30 p.m. - As the actual count continues at the Federal Electoral Institute in Mexico City, the race is tightening. At this hour, Peña Nieto is about 5% up on López Obrador. The exit polls may prove to be wrong. Could this be shades of 2006, when AMLO lost to Felipe Calderón by a mere half percent of the vote? The Old Guard's worst nightmare: Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

July 2, 1:00 a.m. - Mexico's Federal Electoral Institute has projected that Peña Nieto will win by seven to eight percent when counting is officially completed. President Calderón has announced to the nation that EPN is the president-elect, promising to cooperate fully in an orderly transition of authority. The difference between the PRI and PRD candidates at this hour is a mere three percent.

3:00 p.m. - The IFE has counted about 96% of the vote. Enrique Peña Nieto continues to lead Manuel López Obrador by 6.3%. A race which was predicted to be a cakewalk for PRI - victory by an estimated 18.4% margin - has turned out to be anything but. Most of those who were still undecided in the final days leading up to July 1 ended up voting for AMLO, it would seem. And there must have been some significant defections from the PRI camp as well, because EPN lost about 10 percentage points from what was projected just five days ago. The bottom line is that his expected margin of victory was reduced by two-thirds.

July 8 - Rising protests against Enrique Peña Nieto
July 8 - Final count shows Peña Nieto won by 6.62% (Spanish)
July 2 - Andrés Manuel López Obrador calls election "dirty, a national shame"
July 2 - Enrique Peña Nieto captures Mexican presidency

Some PRD loyalists are protesting in Mexico City tonight, chanting "Out with Peña!" and "fraud!" They did the same thing in Mérida on June 3, during a YoSoy 132 demonstration

Yucatán gubernatorial race - FINAL
PRI - Rolando Zapata: 51%
PAN - Joaquin Diaz: 41%

Mexico's apparent president-elect Enrique Peña Nieto and Yucatán governor-elect Rolando Zapata took the stage in Progreso on April 9

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