Enrique Peña Nieto's three smart decisions

MGR News Analysis -
At 100 days, new president says PRI is "not going just to administrate Mexico, but to transform it"

*Updated Mar. 21*
Guadalajara -
Shortly before midnight on Friday, Nov. 30, in the first stage of an orderly change of national authority, Felipe Calderón presided over a brief ceremony which transferred control of Mexico's fuerzas armadas to Enrique Peña Nieto. From that moment on, the new president was in charge of all military authority in this country of 112 million. It was a courtesy which Calderón's own predecessor, Vicente Fox, had extended to him exactly six years before.

About 12 hours later, Peña Nieto took the formal oath of office before senators, deputies and others in the lower legislative chamber, the Cámara de Diputados, and the passing of the baton was complete.

Yesterday marked the president's 100th one in Los Pinos, the nation's White House. In a nationally televised ceremony, Enrique Peña Nieto "rendered accounts," to use a term popular with Mexican politicians. In the patented way of all who hold public office, EPN ticked off claimed accomplishments of his Institutional Revolutionary Party administration. While there's room to debate their legitimacy, here are three things the 47 year old leader has unquestionably done right, in MGR's opinion.

Economics: As leftist politician Manuel López Obrador said during the 2012 presidential contest, economic inequality is the primary cause of Mexico's domestic insecurity. Peña Nieto recognizes that and is doing something about it. He knows one of his biggest challenges will be the economy - even more so than drug cartels. Taking on Mexico's enormous income disparity is a formidable task.

The president is investing much political capital in proposing economic strategies designed to target the country's endemic poverty. In February 2012 Mexico's federal government reported that poverty increased by four million people between 2008 and 2012. About 46% of the nation - some 52 million people - now are officially counted in the ranks of the poor. In January Mexico's Secretary of Social Development (SEDESOL) said that since 2010, those living in the most extreme poverty rose from 11.7 million to 13 million - a jump of over 11% in just 24 months. Much of the PRI legislative agenda in the months ahead will be focused on the economically marginalized and groups particularly at risk, such as persons of the tercera edad - senior citizens. The president often addresses these topics.

On Jan. 21 Mexico launched a National Crusade Against Hunger in the desperately poor southern state of Oaxaca. The project targets 7.4 million people in 400 counties across the country who are most at risk. It's a shameful fact that although Mexico has the world's 14th largest global economy, its citizens rank 81st in food purchasing power. The president has said that ending poverty will be a primary administration goal, especially probreza alimentaria - the inability to buy sufficient nutrition. That topic was a lodestar of his 2012 campaign, and in a country where the median age is just 26, the issue has profound economic and social repercussions.

Many experts believe that the nation will be unable to solve its domestic security concerns until underlying economic disorders have been cured. And there is room for optimism. Mexico should be able to feed itself and offer jobs to those looking for them, based upon the overall performance of its economic engine. Despite pessimistic predictions for 2012 the year turned out better than planned, with 4% expansion of gross domestic product - at least twice the rate of growth in the United States.

Last May, former president Felipe Calderón told a conference of American businessmen in Mexico City that fiscal discipline coupled with a low debt to GDP ratio had enabled Mexico to weather the world-wide financial crisis better than many nations. At an economic summit in Santiago, Chile on Jan. 25, Peña Nieto repeated that theme:

"This scenario, without a doubt, offers Mexico an enormous potential for growth, and we want to take full advantage of it," said the new PRI chief executive. "We want to grow the economy in an equitable manner, which allows for significant development throughout the country. To that end, our focus will be on spreading prosperity while extending economic opportunities even to the remotest corners of the country. Our government wants to be a great facilitator of investment in Mexico."

In a clear reference to the country's yet raging drug war, which has shown not the slightest sign of abating, EPN added, "We want to create greater confidence in investing in Mexico." The president acknowledged that "grave security issues" still confront many areas of the nation. "But the best way to confront them, apart from policing actions, is to create jobs and promote economic development," he said. No one in Mexico will dispute that.

Corruption and special privileges: Political corruption at all levels of Mexican government is a problem as perennial as the grass. If for no other reason than its 71 year reign (1929-2000), the Institutional Revolutionary Party has often been seen as synonymous with bought and bribed officials.

But in a bold move two weeks ago, Enrique Peña Nieto's government suggested it means business when it comes to fighting corruption. It arrested former teachers' union boss Elba Esther Gordillo, who today sits in jail awaiting trial in a case which could land the 68 year old woman in prison for the rest of her life. Once a powerful PRI insider, Gordillo has been charged with stealing 2.6 billion pesos from the Mexican National Educational Workers Union (SNTE), a sum equal to about $158 million dollars. Mexicans reveled over a photo of the rather disheveled embezzler, taken behind bars in a magistrate's courtroom as a judicial officer read the charges and informed Gordillo of her legal rights.

Speaking at PRI's national convention on Mar. 3, Peña Nieto said the days of internal corruption and rule by caudillos - a term for powerful political bosses - were a thing of the past in Mexico. Referring to the latter, the president noted that PRI would "leave behind politically obsolete candidates."

And that's not all. Last week the Cámara de Diputados approved a bill which will strip away temporary immunity from prosecution for virtually all politicians, including federal representatives, governors and other high ranking functionaries. Those officials have long enjoyed the right of fuero, a constitutionally grounded privilege which meant they couldn't be arrested or held to account while in office. The lower chamber passed a measure completely discarding the fuero, with heavy support from PRI legislators.

"My responsibility is that Mexico fully develops all of its potential," Peña Nieto said. "There will be no special interests, no untouchable interests, only the national interest. I understand that the best way to help my party is by running a democratic presidency grounded in the rule of law, which delivers real results to Mexicans. I will make my decisions based only on what the country needs, as we face the challenges of the 21st century and together build a Mexico with a better future."

The drug war: In the first three months of Enrique Peña Nieto's administration, Mexico's drug war claimed 3,157 victims, including at least 100 police officers, soldiers and security personnel. Despite weak protests that things are getting better, there's no empirical evidence which suggests that's true. Moreover, even apart from the daily dose of narco violence, Mexico remains a country where no one's security can be taken for granted. Foreigners, increasingly, are victims of serious common crimes, and reputable security analysts have warned tourists to exercise caution in many of the nation's most popular destinations. Government officials are generally no safer than ordinary citizens, and there is a widespread public perception - backed up by hard data - that far too many crimes go unpunished.

The good news is that Enrique Peña Nieto is going to stay the course set by his predecessor, Felipe Calderón, on domestic security matters. He remains committed to the National Security Strategy implemented by Calderón in December 2006, an approach founded upon the use of Mexico's armed forces as the vanguard of the offensive against drug cartels and organized crime. The president is proceeding with plans to launch Mexico's first national gendarmerie, a federal paramilitary force which eventually will be 75,000 strong. He also plans to enlarge Federal Police ranks by about 30,000. To be sure, the president has no other real option. Mexico is confronting 60-80 active drug cartels, and hundreds of local gangs are at their beck and call (including about 33,000 in the United States). Peña Nieto told the German magazine Der Spiegel last month that the nation's highly respected army and marines will not be returned to their quarters until it's absolutely safe to do so.

That issue, by the way, was disastrously misjudged and misreported by many, especially in the United States. Bold prognostications that Enrique Peña Nieto would quickly jettison Calderón's strategy were unfounded almost from the beginning, but yet have been repeated over and over again north of the border. Some newspapers are just now getting the facts straight. Equally inaccurate have been urban legend-like claims that Mexican military forces are out of control units, marauding over the countryside and killing innocents for the sheer sport of it. In reality, Mexico's well trained and highly professional ejército has been its salvation in stormy seas. But hyperbole is a feature of the drug war.

One final note on domestic security matters is worthy of mention. Peña Nieto and his Colombian drug war czar have already made it clear that Mexico will not tolerate the local "self-defense" units which have appeared in many regions of the country. The government will maintain a monopoly on policing and law enforcement, as does every other nation. Mexico is fighting hard not to become a failed state.
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Enrique Peña Nieto has completed 100 days in office. Today is the first of the remaining 2,090. The work has scarcely begun. Whether Mexico's new PRI government really manages to transform the country, as the president boldly promised yesterday, or goes into default mode as a mere caretaker, yet remains to be seen. But he's off to a very good start. Dec. 19 - Enrique's challenging homework

Note - In a national survey published Feb. 18 Peña Nieto received a 56% public approval rating, with 29% expressing disapproval and 14% offering no opinion.

Mar. 21 - Those who were hoping for a quick end to the drug war under the new PRI administration will have to wait longer. Before leaving Rome yesterday, where he attended Pope Francis' inaugural Mass, Enrique Peña Nieto said measurable results are a year away. "By then we should begin to see a sensible reduction in violence," he said, while emphasizing that even that modest goal might not be met. All the talk of a 100 day security plan has gone by the wayside. Yet another acknowledgment by the president that Mexico's drug war is a marathon, not a sprint.

Mar. 12 - Mexicans divided on drug war effort of new government
Apr. 10 - Peña mantiene estrategia de seguridad de Calderón: Madero

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