*Updated Mar. 21*Guadalajara -
In a domestic security survey conducted last month by the influential Mexico City newspaper El Universal, 51% of respondents said the new Institutional Revolutionary Party government should continue its struggle against drug cartels and organized crime. But 26% said the effort should be abandoned or reduced, in order "to avoid more violence."
The survey was sharply at odds with one published by the U.S. based Pew Research Center in June 2012. Its study showed that 80% of Mexicans supported the use of armed forces against the cartels. Mexican drug cartels will likely morph into "super gangs," says U.S. security firm.
Moreover, an October 2012 survey conducted by the respected Mexican pollster Consulta Mitofsky indicated that although many citizens had little confidence in the ability of either their outgoing or incoming president to resolve the nation's ongoing domestic security problems, 69% of them wanted military forces to remain in the fight. Mexican public security survey gives poor marks to Calderón, and reveals little confidence in Peña Nieto.
The El Universal questionnaire suggests that scarcely half of the nation now supports the struggle which holds front and center place in most daily newspapers and broadcasts.
The latest sampling of Mexican popular opinion on drug war issues yielded some other interesting results as well. Forty percent of respondents believe that violence has increased (either sharply or slightly) since PRI president Enrique Peña Nieto was sworn in on Dec. 1. Another 38% think it has stayed about the same. Only 20% said violence had decreased.
Peña Nieto campaigned heavily on a promise to drastically reduce violence in the first 100 days of his administration, and suggested that drug war and organized crime homicides could be decreased by as much as 50%. His 100th day in office was Mar. 10. In the first three months of the PRI administration, 3,157 persons were killed across the nation.
If perception is everything then the new government may find the survey results a mixed bag. Fifty-one percent of those questioned said that Peña Nieto is following a new drug war strategy (but apparently one they don't like, since that curious opinion was coupled with a perception of increased violence). Only 42% reported the president is pursuing the same strategy or one similar to his predecessor, Felipe Calderón. In reality there is virtually no difference. Enrique Peña Nieto's three smart decisions.
The goal of the drug war was agreed upon by almost a third of respondents: 32% said it should be principally focused on the reduction of violence nationwide. That conclusion revealed, once again, the massive disconnect in Mexico between the narcotics trade and violence. Only 22% felt the purpose of the struggle is, or should be, to defeat the cartels themselves.
When asked how long it would take to win the war, 30% suggested five years or more. As recently as 2011 U.S. military experts told Congress that Mexico would need at least a decade to defeat the cartels. The nation's new attorney general, Jesús Murillo Karam, said on Dec. 18 that there are 60-80 of them. Those cartels work with and through an estimated 33,000 local gangs in the United States.
Peña Nieto told the German magazine Der Spiegel last month that the nation's highly respected army and marines will not be returned to their quarters until it's absolutely safe to do so.
The new PRI government estimates that 70,000 people died during the first six years of the drug war, which was launched by Calderón on Dec. 11, 2006.
El Universal, founded in 1916, is one of Mexico's oldest and most respected national newspapers. The survey of 1,000 persons was conducted February 7-12.
Mar. 21 - Those who were hoping for a quick end to the drug war under the new PRI administration will have to wait longer. Before leaving Rome yesterday, where he attended Pope Francis' inaugural Mass, Enrique Peña Nieto said measurable results are a year away. "By then we should begin to see a sensible reduction in violence," he said, while emphasizing that even that modest goal might not be met. All the talk of a 100 day security plan has gone by the wayside. Yet another acknowledgment by the president that Mexico's drug war is a marathon, not a sprint.
© MGRR 2013. All rights reserved. This article may be cited or briefly quoted with proper attribution or a hyperlink, but not reproduced without permission. The survey is work product of and copyrighted by El Universal.
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