"This worsening security situation already has caused problems for expatriates in Mexico in 2013" - Stratfor Global Intelligence, March 7, 2013
Guadalajara -In language which mirrors dozens of recent MGR reports, the U.S. security consulting firm Stratfor today included four of Mexico's once most prestigious tourist resorts as locations suffering from highly compromised security. It warned travelers to be on special guard when visiting them, due to the spillover effect of regional narco violence as well as ordinary street crime carried out by local gangs.
Stratfor is a global intelligence company founded in 1996 in Austin, Tex. It sells intelligence briefings to individual and corporate subscribers through its website. Stratfor is often quoted in the Mexican press, especially on drug war and domestic security matters, and is highly respected in the U.S.
In a spring break oriented report released today, Stratfor said that Mexico's most dangerous tourist destinations are Acapulco, Cancún, Puerto Vallarta, Mazatlan and Matamoros - the latter because of its proximity to South Padre Island, Texas.
MGR has reported at length on all of the locations which are the subject of today's alert by Stratfor. Here is a brief summary:
Acapulco has been the scene of multiple violent acts against foreign tourists in the past six weeks, including the rapes of seven Spanish women on Feb. 4 and the murder of a Belgian businessman on Feb. 23. Last month the international press called Acapulco "a death zone." A Mexican association reported that the city is the second most dangerous in the world. Three days ago a Canadian couple was assaulted and robbed after visiting a restaurant in the tourist district. They were hospitalized with non-life threatening injuries. Recent MGR reports on Acapulco:
Mar. 12 - Huge cancellations in Acapulco, as Spain issues new warning for Mexico
Mar. 5 - Canadian tourists, 60 and 65, injured in Acapulco assault
Feb. 24 - Murder of Belgian in Acapulco tourist district further damages already tarnished image
Feb. 23 - Mexico nabs chief executioner for Cartel of Acapulco
Feb. 5 - "Image of Acapulco" is on the line, admits its mayor
Feb. 6 - Acapulco's tearful mayor begs Enrique Peña Nieto for federal help
Rapes of six Spanish tourists in Acapulco on Feb. 4
Feb. 4 - Spanish tourists raped, robbed on Acapulco beach front
Feb. 5 - USA Today story, quoting Mexico Gulf Reporter: Six tourists raped in Acapulco
Feb. 6 - Gunmen ambush police patrol in war torn Guerrero state, leaving nine officers dead
Feb. 8 - Today could bring arrests in Acapulco rape case, as more disturbing details emerge
Feb. 8 - Serial rapists may be responsible for Acapulco attacks - but do police have the right men?
Feb. 13 - Mexican prosecutors announce arrests in Acapulco rapes
Cancún authorities said earlier this week they've beefed up security in the gateway to the Riviera Maya in preparation for the anticipated annual influx of tourists. Cancún prepares for spring breakers with strong display of military muscle - and "zero tolerance for crime". But since late December the Quintana Roo press has been warning of a potential "bloodbath" in the region, as four major drug cartels duke it out in a violent local turf war. Two cartels unite to declare war on Los Zetas in Cancún.
Mar. 19 - Expanding Gulf Cartel likely behind three recent Riviera Maya atrocities
Puerto Vallarta found out last October that it's not immune to Mexico's drug war when a determined execution squad did its best to kill the famous resort's police chief. The effort failed, but the chief left town in a hurry. Local tourism, especially by Americans, has suffered significantly. MGR Photojournal Report: in Puerto Vallarta, tensions linger after brazen narco attack.
Puerto Vallarta, Oct. 15, 2012
Mazatlán and much of the Pacific coast state of Sinaloa remain drug war hot zones. Last month Mexican marines arrested the chief executioner for El Chapo Guzmán - the world's most wanted narcotics trafficker - in the area, and earlier this week four small town police officers were kidnapped and executed just down the coast from the resort city. Recent MGR reports:
Four police officers kidnapped, executed in Sinaloa state on Mexico's Pacific coast
Mexican marines arrest chief executioner for El Chapo Guzmán in Sinaloa state
Is Mexico closing in on El Chapo Guzmán?
Sinaloa governor gets family out of Mexico
Mayor of Pacific coast resort survives assassination attempt
Matamoros has never been a major U.S. tourist destination, but its location in Tamaulipas state, just across the border from Brownsville, is reason enough for concern notes Stratfor. The entire region is a seedbed of narcotics trafficking violence as major drug cartels, including Los Zetas, the Gulf Cartel and others, struggle for domination of north bound routes. Anything can happen in the area, including all out armed attacks against public authority. Narco terrorists launch grenade attack against capitol building in border state of Tamaulipas. Americans should stay away, and most are already so inclined according to recently published travel data. U.S. travelers: a "generalized terror" of northern Mexico.
Mar. 31, 2012 - U.S. Consulate in Matamoros, Tamaulipas issues Emergency Warning for Americans
Manzanillo in Colima state is not one of the tourist destinations mentioned by Stratfor today, but the beach town has had security issues of its own recently. Only a few hours drive south of Guadalajara, the famous port has felt the spill over effects of regional drug trafficking in the nearby states of Jalisco and Michoacán. Another Jalisco police officer executed near Manzanillo.
Mexican gangs
Nine months ago MGR told readers that Mexico's powerful drug cartels would, to some extent, morph into violent local gangs. Today Stratfor made a similar argument:
"The presence of cartels, especially in areas where multiple cartels are engaged in competition, causes a deterioration of security conditions that lends itself to the formation of local gangs. These local gangs may not be affiliated with the cartels, but still present many of the same security concerns. They may be involved in murder, extortion, carjacking, sexual assaults, kidnappings and cause collateral damage like the cartels. This worsening security situation already has caused problems for expatriates in Mexico in 2013."
MGR 2012 reports on gangs:
Oct. 23 - Crime gangs which are replacing drug cartels will be difficult to track and fight
Jun. 22 - Mexican drug cartels will likely morph into "super gangs," says U.S. security firm
MGR reports quoting or citing Stratfor Global Intelligence
Jan. 7 - Peña Nieto: no option but to follow Calderón strategy, says Stratfor
Jan. 6 - Stratfor: Mexican drug cartels enjoy global presence via cocaine
Mar. 9 - Jalisco Secretary of Tourism assassinated in Guadalajara
Mar. 8 - Another bridge hanging in Mexico, this time in Saltillo
Mar. 6 - Peña Nieto's drug war czar says "No" to Mexican civilian militias
Mar. 1 - 100 police officers and soldiers killed in PRI's first 90 days
Feb. 1 - Human Rights Watch criticism of Mexican drug war reveals little understanding of conflict
Feb. 19 - NY Times figures out in Mexican drug war, Enrique Peña Nieto = Felipe Calderón Hinojosa.
U.S. and foreign travel warnings about Mexico
Nov. 20, 2012 - U.S. State Dept. renews general travel alert for Mexico
Aug. 27, 2012 - U.S. State Dept. issues Guadalajara warning
Jun. 12, 2012 - U.S. State Dept. issues Mexico-wide alert, warning of "anti-American violence"
Jun. 5, 2012 - U.S. State Dept. Warning to Americans in Mexico
Mar. 31, 2012 - U.S. Consulate in Matamoros, Tamaulipas issues Emergency Warning for Americans
Mar. 2, 2012 - Spring Break nears, but U.S. students are not headed to Cancún (or much of Mexico)
Feb. 8, 2012 - U.S. issues new travel alert for Mexico
Dec. 22, 2011 - U.S. warns citizens after narco terrorists launch offensive in Veracruz - 16 dead
Nov. 21, 2011 - Mexico reports major decline in tourism due to narco crime, world economic woes
Nov. 6, 2011 - 65% of Mexico declared "off limits" to foreign travelers by western nations
© MGRR 2013. All rights reserved. This article may be cited or briefly quoted with proper attribution or a hyperlink, but not reproduced without permission.
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