Saturday, January 14, 2012

Josefina Mota continues polling strong in advance of Feb. 5 PAN primary selection

National Action Party candidate appears to be particularly popular with business

Mexico's National Action Party (PAN) is the only one which has yet to select its 2012 presidential standard bearer. It will do so Feb. 5 when the PAN primary is held. The primary is an internal survey of registered party members, not an election open to the general public. The three PAN contenders will have their first national debate next Tuesday, Jan. 17, which will be closely watched by voters and other candidates alike.

By all indications, Josefina Vázquez Mota has her party's nomination pretty well sown up. Several days ago she claimed that her own survey showed she was a 61% favorite among PANistas. The respected private pollster Consulta Mitofsky placed her a little lower, but still with a solid lead. Last week it said that Mota enjoys 54% support when compared to PAN opponents Santiago Creel, with 31%, and Ernesto Cordero, with 12%. If she wins, Mota would become the first female presidential nominee in Mexico's 202 year history.

One sector of the general electorate which strongly supports Mota is business. In a survey recently reported by CNN, 53.7% of business owners said that if the election were held today, they would vote for Mota. In sharp contrast, only 16.7% of business owners support her PRI opponent Enrique Peña Nieto, who otherwise consistently tops all general polls by huge margins (about 2-1 over Mota). And the least popular candidate with business is PRD's Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who received 3.7% support. Perhaps that shouldn't be a surprise, since the leftist candidate (that's the press and "official" evaluation of him, not necessarily mine) has been accused of saying that businessmen "are just while collar criminals" ( But it should be noted that almost 26% of the business owners surveyed said they had not yet decided for which candidate or party they would vote, so much could change between now and July 1. Results of the poll were based upon responses received from the CEOs of the 500 most "important business" in Mexico, according to the magazine Expansión which conducted it.

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