The 64 month old drug war in this country is based on the primary use of federal military units as opposed to local and state police. There is evidence that the strategy is working. On Feb. 28 the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime reported that traffickers, facing increasing pressure from search-and-destroy missions launched by Mexican troops, are moving their operations south across the border into Guatemala, a country rapidly spiraling out of control (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/02/more-evidence-mexican-drug-war-strategy.html).
Today Peña Nieto had high praise for Mexico's army and naval forces, and recognized the key role they have played in those regions of the country most ravaged by narco violence. He promised to keep them in place in areas of extreme danger (perhaps half the states). The candidate also said that as soon as local police have been retrained and prepared to assume primary responsibility for the drug war, military units will be withdrawn. If you think you've heard those words before, you have. That's been Calderón's exact strategy since he took office over six years ago. It's also one of the two campaign linchpins of PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota. (Peña Nieto has a track record of appropriating others' campaign themes and ideas (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/01/in-merida-speech-pris-enrique-pena.html). He's been doing the same thing of late on the topic of education, mimicking plans announced by Vázquez Mota months ago.)
While on a trip to the U.S. last November, Peña Nieto said he believed that military forces should be removed from the streets (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/11/pris-likley-presidential-candidate.html). And in early March he told Vice president Joe Biden he would employ "a different strategy" (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/03/felipe-calderon-welcomes-vp-joe-biden.html). But today EPN came out of the closet and admitted during a press conference that Mexico has no other viable strategic option at this juncture. What the PRI nominee should have added is that federal troops likely will be on the streets for many years to come, and everybody may as well get used to it.
Vázquez Mota has repeatedly assured voters that she'd not pull the Mexican army from the drug fight until local police forces are ready to assume primary responsibility for anti-cartel operations. Conversely, PRD nominee Andrés Manuel López Obrador has said time and again that military units will "be returned to their quarters" within six months if he's elected, and responsibility for the battle will be handed over to municipal and state police (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/02/lopez-obrado-repeats-promise-to-pull.html). Now we finally know where the three main presidential candidates stand on this issue of paramount importance, 10 days into the formal campaign.
In any other political world Peña Nieto's announcement could only help his PAN opponent. The overriding issue in this election year is how the drug war should be waged, and the PRI nominee today unambiguously acknowledged that Calderón's approach has been the right one, if not the only one, all along. But leave it to the very skillful spin doctors of the Institutional Revolutionary Party. By the time July 1 rolls around, they'll be suggesting that EPN was actually the one who came up with the idea for the National Security Strategy in the first place. Such is the world of politics in Mexico on this Easter Sunday, 2012.
A footnote: When Peña Nieto was in the U.S. visiting government officials in November 2011, a Mexican national columnist claimed the PRI nominee assured them that if elected, he would "do whatever they told him to do" (on drug war matters). An obsequious attitude, to be sure. If it's true, and the Mexican voting public knew about it, they just might put the candidate on the next northbound bus, with instructions never to return. I've not seen the claim repeated by any other writer, but it seems to me entirely plausible. The United States has given Mexico over one billion dollars in Mérida Initiative drug war support, and the remaining $500 million is scheduled for the next several years. What a shame to forfeit all that cash -- not to speak of the embarrassing news stories which inevitably would follow.
Planteará Peña Nieto Estrategia Nacional para Reducir la Violencia: http://www.milenio.com/cdb/doc/noticias2011/41b7fb1f83d1281726928ecb2631481d.
Mexico's presidential campaign begins: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/03/mexicos-presidential-campaign-opens.html.
Peña Nieto agrees that Veracruz should remain under federal military control: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/04/pena-nieto-agrees-that-veracruz-should.html.
Peña Nieto avoids key drug war issue: will Mexican armed forces participate?: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/03/pena-nieto-still-avoids-key-drug-war.html.
Is Enrique Peña Nieto already backing away from key drug war pledge?: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/01/is-enrique-pena-nieto-already-backing.html.
Memo to Enique Peña Nieto - Mexico is waiting: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/03/memo-to-enique-pena-nieto-mexico-is.html.
Sen. John McCain has his doubts about one of Mexico's presidential candidates: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/02/sen-john-mccain-expresses-doubt-about.html.
Why the Calderón strategy has been the right one: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/12/calderon-strategy-has-been-right-one.html.
Why the L.A. Times just doesn't get it: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/11/why-la-times-just-doesnt-get-it.html.
Weeding out corruption is daunting task in Mexico - polygraphs for 500,000 cops: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2011/10/weeding-out-corrupt-local-cops-remains.html.
Obama warns of narco threat to U.S.: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/04/obama-warns-of-narco-threat-to-us.html.
"Drug war threatens Mexico's survival and U.S. national security": http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/01/if-cartel-violence-is-not-contained-in.html.
Survey reveals massive disconnect in Mexico between drug trade and violence: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/11/survey-reveals-massive-disconnect-in.html.
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