Fanciful and shifting economic promises, a staple in Mexican presidential campaign

You can fool some of the people all of the time, but everybody all of the time?

A political maxim holds that people ultimately vote from their wallets. The candidates in Mexico's presidential campaign understand this concept as well as politicians anywhere. It looks like they're also trusting in the short memories, or lack of basic economic common sense, of many of those voters as well.

Take PRD's Andrés Manuel López Obrador, for instance. On Nov. 16, 2011, he told a crowd of supporters that in the first year of his presidency he would deliver seven million new jobs to unemployed Mexican youth -- four million of them in the first six weeks alone. More than a few eyebrows were raised. But he claimed to have already budgeted for the New Deal-style plan, designed to give the country's aimless "ninis" -- millions of young people who neither work nor attend school -- a chance to pull themselves up and thereby resist the incessant lure of the drug cartels.
(López Obrador begins campaign with bold promise: 7 million new jobs in first year: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/11/lopez-obrador-begins-campaign-with-bold.html).

In a morning press conference today, López Obrador radically backed off those numbers. Now he's promising 1.2 million new jobs in the first year of his administration, with another 5.8 million over his six year term. Still an ambitious undertaking, to be sure, but radically different from the one he promised just four months ago. Apparently, nobody asked the PRD candidate a single follow up question.

Last fall López Obrador also spent a lot of time talking about how the "humble people" of Mexico -- the poorest classes -- would have his primary attention when the national budget was being prepared. According to government statistics released in February, 52% of the country's 110 million people live in moderate to severe poverty. But this morning the PRD nominee's comments were all heavily focused on economic relief for Mexico's struggling middle class and small to mid-sized businesses. How quickly politicians forget -- or simply change their target audience to suit the exigencies of the moment.

Enrique Peña Nieto's "secret stimulus plan"
Campaigning in Guadalajara last Friday (Mar. 30), Enrique Peña Nieto told thousands of business owners that he could grow Mexico's economy 5-6% annually. By way of a bench mark, in 2011 Mexico's economy grew 4.1%. In late December the country's central bank, Banxico, predicted that growth would drop sharply to about 3.2% in 2012. But Peña Nieto claims he has a plan in mind for raising those recent numbers anywhere from 22% to 88%. That's a most impressive economic proposal. What's the plan? He didn't give a clue.

The U.S. economy grew about 2.5% in 2011 (maybe less, because the numbers are still being revised). It's expected to do about the same in 2012. Some experts predict growth might rise to 3% in 2013. Despite the fact that Mexico's economy is heavily dependent on that of its neighbor to the north (and is much smaller, too), Peña Nieto claims that he can double America's rate of growth. Probably no one will ask him the obvious question - how?

Increasing poverty, rising state debt result in poor economic report for Mexico: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/02/increase-in-state-indebtedness-poverty.html.
Risk of a "catastrophic event" in 2012 has increased, says Mexico's central bank: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/12/risk-of-catastrophic-event-in-2012-has.html.
Mexico's presidential campaign opens: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/03/mexicos-presidential-campaign-opens.html#more.

Banxico director Agustín Carstens says there will be very little to smile about in 2012. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago.










Mexican women are crazy about Enrique

PRI presidential candidate Enrique Peña Nieto loves women and women -- apparently -- love him. If there's any doubt about either proposition read the first two posts below. So Friday (Mar. 30) 3,000 of them showed up for a big rally in Guadalajara, EPN's first official day on the campaign trail. From the looks of it, Mexican women aren't holding the nominee's previous indiscretions against him. They queued up for hours to hear Peña Nieto speak, have their photo taken with him, touch him (just imagine!) and simply be with the man . . . and with his well-known wife, telenovela actress Angélica Rivera Hurtado. The couple wed in 2010.

Calling his second spouse Rivera Hurtado "a great lady," Peña Nieto said "women are an example of how we can overcome problems, an inspiration. Women resolve problems with intelligence, not by force; they know how to deal with challenges and adversity intelligently. Mexico needs its women. And I ask for your support, because with all due respect, to win the presidency of Mexico Enrique needs its women." Everybody said yes to that, it seems.

The many romances of Enrique Peña Nieto: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/02/el-gran-amante-many-romances-of-enrique.html.
Peña Nieto admits: "I was unfaithful" - and bares all in newspaper interview: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/01/pena-nieto-admits-i-was-unfaithful-and.html.