Thursday, February 23, 2012

Another weekly poll shows 16 point spread between Peña Nieto and Vázquez Mota

But president Calderón offers a very different analysis

A second presidential preference poll published this week -- conducted by Consulta Mitofsky -- reported a 16 percentage point difference between the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN) nominees. An El Universal poll earlier this week showed exactly the same spread between the two top candidates, albeit with different numbers for each ( Mitofsky says here's the way voters currently feel about their options:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 41%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 25%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 17%

The last Consulta Mitofsky poll taken Feb. 9 yielded results statistically identical to today's (
PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 40%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 24%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 18%

Mexican president Felipe Calderón told a group of businessmen during a private meeting today that he believes the race is "much closer than people think," that only four to six points separate Josefina and Enrique and that the PANista is "gaining ground." Calderón based his opinion upon another poll which he claimed shows Peña Nieto with a 41% edge, Vázquez Mota with 37% and López Obrador with 21%, a virtual tie between the PRI and PAN candidates given the statistical margin of error, according to the president. The PRI and PRD nominees responded predictably:

Peña Nieto: "I recommend that the president change his polling company."

López Obrador: "Polls don't mean anything anyway, they're all part of the propaganda war, they reflect what the client who ordered them wants to hear."

Josefina Vázquez Mota said she's not focused upon any particular poll results, other than what she alleges is a clear indication that her campaign is generally "on the rise."

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