Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Mitofsky poll: Peña Nieto 14 points up on Vázquez Mota; López Obrador steady

But number of undecided voters continues to rise - almost 1 out of 5

A Consulta Mitofsky presidential preference poll published today reported a 14 percentage point difference between the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and National Action Party (PAN) nominees. Mitofsky says voters currently feel this way about their options:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 38.5%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 24.2%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 17.8%

Two previous Consulta Mitofsky polls taken in February, about 14 days apart, showed PRI up by 16%. In contrast, today's poll indicates that Vázquez Mota has gained two points on front runner Peña Nieto, while López Obrador remains in almost exactly the same position. Virtually all of the movement to date has been by the PRI and PAN candidates; support for third-placed PRD appears stagnant. The campaign season officially opens on March 30.

But the biggest surprise for some campaign consultants - and a source of hope, as well - was the increase in the number of voters who've not yet made up their minds. The poll published today says that 19% of Mexicans are undecided about their choice (up from 17% last month), and some 13% couldn't even name the candidates of the three major parties. That should bring a smile to the faces of those who sell political advertising. A logical conclusion from this poll, by the way, would be that both PRI and PAN have lost some ground to the undecided camp, although Peña Nieto rather more so.

Previous Consulta Mitofsky polls:
Feb. 23 (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/02/another-weekly-poll-shows-16-point.html):
PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 41%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 25%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 17%

Feb. 9 (http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/02/campaign-2012-presidential-poll-shows.html):
PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 40%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 24%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 18%

All three Consulta Mitofsky polls are greatly at odds with another Feb. 29 poll (GEA-ISA), which suggested that Josefina Vázquez Mota has pulled to within seven percentage points of Enrique Peña Nieto. Josefina Roars Ahead: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2012/03/josefina-roars-ahead-as-presidential.html.

Of course, the candidates deny that they're paying the slightest attention to poll results. Sure . . . just like their Republican counterparts north of the border.

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