Thursday, March 1, 2012

Josefina roars ahead, as presidential race narrows to seven points according to poll

Latest results surprise many, especially in the PRI camp

In the latest 2012 presidential preference survey published last evening, Mexico pollster GEA-ISA reported that National Action Party (PAN) nominee Josefina Vázquez Mota is now within seven percentage points of front runner Enrique Peña Nieto, the PRI candidate. Just last week two independent polls showed Vázquez Mota at least 16 points behind Peña Nieto, and at times in recent months she has trailed the Institutional Revolutionary Party nominee by as much as 25-30 points. In every one of multiple polls taken over the past six weeks, Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) nominee Andrés Manuel López Obrador, generally referred to as the leftist option, has remained flat with around 17-18% support.

The good news/bad news for all three candidates is that 17% of the likely voters who were surveyed reported that they are still undecided. No one would more like to capture those 17 points than López Obrador. And he desperately needs to, to be a serious contender.

Mexico's formal campaign season doesn't begin until March 30. About 80 million voters are expected to cast ballots on Sunday, July 1 for the man or woman who will lead the country for 72 months beginning Dec. 1, 2012.

Yesterday's (Feb. 29) GEA-ISA results:

PRI - Enrique Peña Nieto: 36%
PAN - Josefina Vázquez Mota: 29%
PRD - Andrés Manuel López Obrador: 17%

Feb. 29 results

Other recent polls:
Feb. 23 Consulta Mitofsky poll:
Feb. 21 El Universal poll:
Feb. 9 Consulta Mitofsky poll:
Now just which candidate was Sen. John McCain referring to?:

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