Mexico's presidential candidates debate

Josefina drags a family tragedy out of the closet, but to what political end?

Mexico, D.F. --
The first presidential debate between Mexico's four presidential candidates was held this evening. The two hour affair was hard-hitting at times, with PRD candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador relentlessly striking out at PRI nominee Enrique Peña Nieto, who remains in easy first place five weeks after the campaign opened (March 30). Reduced to basics, López Obrador accused Peña Nieto of being the front man for a corrupt political regime which ran Mexico for more than 70 years and is now desperately trying to recapture the country's highest office, which it lost in 2000. He also argued that PRI has paid millions to the media to protect its candidate's image. It's López Obrador's standard campaign theme, but his delivery was far less polished and less emotive than I've heard from him before.

PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota joined in the slug fest against Peña Nieto at times, but not very convincingly. Overall I was unimpressed with her performance tonight. Even though I saw no obvious stumbles, she touched upon some "issues" arguably far afield from this year's election. One of those included repeated references to the bizarre "Paulette affair," a case which captivated this country for weeks in the spring of 2010.

Is an accidental death case relevant to a presidential election?
Paulette was a young, developmentally challenged girl from a well-to-do Mexican family who mysteriously disappeared from her home -- a presumed victim of kidnappers -- but almost a week later later was found dead in her own bedroom, wedged face down in a narrow space between the edge of her mattress and the bed frame. State prosecutors first suggested that Paulette's mother (who was separated and living apart from the child's father) had harmed her in some way, and two female domestics were also suspected of criminal involvement. But forensic investigators -- aided by the F.B.I. and U.S. experts -- ultimately concluded that Paulette's death was accidental, and that she had expired from positional asphyxia. Paulette frequently engaged in unusual behavior, such as sleeping on the floor or under her bed, and the strange manner of her demise was consistent with her previous conduct. Almost beyond belief, her body lay undiscovered in her bedroom for days, and even experienced investigators who had repeatedly scoured the family quarters failed to find her (she was trapped far down towards the bottom of the bed frame, covered by the bedspread, and police said that air conditioning which typically kept the home very cool masked the smell of decay). But many were dissatisfied with the official ruling, and felt that it was another example of those with money being protected by the legal system.

Josefina plunged into the dark recesses of this case tonight, suggesting that Peña Nieto, who at the time was governor of the State of Mexico where the events unfolded, bears partial responsibility for the "many unanswered questions" surrounding it. I thought her argument went nowhere, but like a dog with a bone she wouldn't let go of it. In a country where there is widespread mistrust of a slowly changing legal system, perhaps Vázquez Mota scored points in some quarters. But I believe it was a strategic error to resurrect this very sensitive matter for political dissection before an audience of millions. Mexico has enough problems on the table without trying to do another post-mortem on little Paulette.

In my opinion the candidate who shined tonight and stood head and shoulders above the others was Gabriel Quadri de la Torre of the New Alliance Party (PNA). Quadri is a civil engineer who also holds both a masters and doctorate in economics from the University of Texas. He's possessed of a businessman's cool, common-sense temperament, and his responses to every question were loaded with solid reasoning and very practical ideas. But Quadri has virtually no chance of being elected. He's not flashy, he's not particularly stylish, and polls consistently show him with less than two percent support. Democracy, where it exists, implies the privilege of electing the worst government possible.

Quadri and López Obrador get it right on economic matters
Quadri and López Obrador argued that Mexico is incapable of producing large numbers of quality jobs for many reasons, including protectionist government policies which disfavor competition. Both candidates also said that the country's educational system, particularly at the primary and secondary levels, does a poor job of preparing most students for the challenges of the increasingly global economy.

López Obrador vigorously contended, as he has in the past, that Mexico's entire national wealth has been "stolen by politicians." He argues, "We can't continue ignoring social needs, by not helping those who remain behind." He says that his administration would "govern for everybody; we're going to take care of and listen to everybody, respect everybody, but we're going to give preference to the humble people of our country."

López Obrador says that Mexico's annual federal budget of 3.5 trillion pesos (about $260 billion USD) represents over 10,000 pesos per family, and urges that budgetary goals be established with fairness and a greater sense of social justice. But he stresses, "We're not trying to take anything from anybody; we won't take from the rich to give to the poor."

I have nothing particular to report on Enrique Peña Nieto. He made no obvious errors. He withstood the punishing blows from all quarters calmly and with quiet dignity (because he knows he can afford to). But I don't recall much of what the man said. I find that I seldom can, and I've been studying EPN since last fall. Whenever he speaks, anywhere to anyone about anything, right after he stops speaking the first thought which comes into my mind is, "Now let's see, what did he just say . . .?" Y el problema no es el español. El problema es la falta del contenido, y la de las ideas.

After the dust has settled on tonight's debate -- maybe I should call it tonight's episode of Perry Mason -- I'll post on how the latest presidential preference surveys have reacted to the big event. I doubt there will be much change in the overall results. (López Obrador again in 2nd place in post-debate survey; is Enrique Peña Nieto sweating?: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/05/lopez-obrador-again-in-2nd-place-in.html).

Mexicans, perhaps as many as 80 million of them, will go the the polls on Sunday, July 1 to elect the man or woman who will replace outgoing PAN president Felipe Calderón (a final debate will be held in June, about three weeks before). The official changing of the guard occurs on Dec. 1, 2012, and the next chief executive will serve a single term of 72 months. For an extensive review and analysis of the candidates' positions on all the major issues, and the political challenges confronting them, click on the first link below.

Mexico's presidential campaign begins: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/03/mexicos-presidential-campaign-opens.html#more.
Economic inequality the primary cause of Mexico's insecurity, says AMLO: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/04/economic-inequality-primary-cause-of.html.