Saturday, June 9, 2012

López Obrador surges to 29% in latest poll

PRI candidate losing steam, with election just 21 days away and 20% yet undecided

June 9

June 8

The latest numbers aren't pretty for PRIstas. Call it The Guardian effect. Or perhaps the YoSoy 132 effect. In any case, 29% is the highest AMLO has ever posted, and brings him to within 16% of front runner EPN. The undecideds still remain very significant -- 20% -- and there's no good reason to believe that most of them are going to punch the red, white and green emblem on the ballot. It seems unlikely that voters with sympathies gravitating towards PRI would be fence straddling at this late date. Josefina Vázquez Mota appears out of the picture entirely, barring a last-minute miracle. Her campaign never caught fire. And of course, she took an ice pick or two in the back along the way Vicente Fox, a PRIsta in very thin disguise.

The latest polls of 1,152 probable voters were conducted Jun. 6-9, and like all Milenio-GEA/ISA surveys, they have a +/-3% statistical margin of error.

May 31

The Old Guard's worst nightmare: Andrés Manuel López Obrador
Enrique Peña Nieto hits new campaign low

Yo Soy 132 demonstrators in Mérida, May 23: "Intolerant? Yes, of the lies of the media"

1 comment:

  1. I've received phone calls at least 3 times during the past several days to answer political survey questions. I'm not sure which organizations made the calls. Lots of questions of the type, "On a scale of 1 to 10, how important do you consider X-issues?" along with "If you were going to vote today, which candidate would you vote for for X-office?" and "Do you usually vote for individual candidates or for the political party they represent?"

    Judging by the political posters and banners on the houses in my neighborhood, which is a lower middle class working neighborhood, I would say it appears to be PRI-dominated, although I see very few pictures of pesidential candidates on the posters/banners. Mostly pictures of candidates for other offices.

    It will be a somewhat difficult decision for me, because I don't really care for any of the presidental candidates, and I don't have a lot of confidence in any of the political parties. However, I will vote, because I don't want to break the law. Voting is obligatory for Mexican citizens, although it's a law that would be difficult if not impossible to enforce.

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