The New York Times usually does a pretty good job of getting all of its ducks in a row, but a story published yesterday (June 10) about the alleged drug war positions of Mexico's three major presidential candidates did less than justice to PAN candidate Josefina Vázquez Mota. In fact, it did her a real injustice, by significantly mischaracterizing her consistently announced position on the issue. The article wasn't particularly accurate in its analysis of the positions of the other two leading candidates, either.
The Times story is here: Candidates in Mexico Signal a New Tack in the Drug War, and it's worth a read - even with the erroneous impressions it will leave many readers.
The story's premise is that U.S. officials are worried that no matter who wins, he or she will abandon Felipe Calderón's now 66 month old National Security Strategy, which has as its centerpiece the use of the country's armed forces against the drug cartels. It's a very controversial strategy, to be sure. As I noted on March 30, the day the campaign formally opened in this country, an argument can be made that the 2012 election is nothing more than a referendum on "Calderón's drug war" - the way it's derisively referred to by many here (Mexico's presidential campaign begins).
But by tucking the three main candidates in the same bed on this core issue, the Times did at least two of them a real disservice, especially PAN nominee Josefina Vázquez Mota. Let's take a look at what each has actually said about their planned drug war strategies.
Enrique Peña Nieto
The PRI nominee has been all over the lot on the drug war, and as I've written before, his "official position" on the topic has remained subject to "adjustment" at anytime to deal with the political exigencies of the moment. In November 2011, while on a brief get-to-know-me trip to the U.S., Peña Nieto categorically stated that he'd pull Mexico's military forces from the drug war (PRI's likely presidential candidate urges that military be withdrawn from drug fight). But in January, he began to change his tune (Is Peña Nieto backing away from key drug war pledge?). When vice president Joe Biden came calling in March to meet separately with all the candidates, Peña Nieto remained elusive, telling the veep that he was "committed to the fight, but with a different strategy." It doesn't get much more ambiguous than that. (Enrique Peña Nieto continues to dodge key drug war issue).
But all the ambiguities came to a halt on April 8 when the tricolor candidate announced the Mexican army would remain charged with primary responsibility for waging the war against narcotics traffickers and organized crime if he's elected president. In other words, he promised to more or less stick with Calderón's National Security Strategy (Enrique Peña Nieto says Mexican army will retain pivotal role in drug war if he's elected). In particularly violent areas, like bloody Veracruz on the Gulf coast, Mexican soldiers will provide all policing (Peña Nieto agrees that Veracruz should remain under federal military control). EPN has neither said nor implied that he's going to abandon the drug war.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador
The Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate originally announced that if elected, he would immediately remove Mexican troops from the drug war. López Obrador said the armed forces would be "returned to their quarters within six months." The nominee's plan is to let national, and especially state and local, police units carry the brunt of the struggle against the country's drug cartels. The proposal worried more than a few, because most people don't believe that municipal contingents, called preventivos here, are up to the task of taking on drug cartels armed with AK-47s and AR-15s. But there was no ambiguity in AMLO's plan (López Obrador repeats promise to pull Mexican military forces from drug war).
Then during his routine morning press conference on May 16, López Obrador altered his position considerably. He said that troops, whom he characterized as "worn out," would be slowly withdrawn from drug war duties. "We have to take care of the army; it's exhausted from this fight. It's one of the country's most important institutions, and we don't want to undermine it. So while we're still going to remove it from public security duties, the process will be slow, to protect the people." The PRD hopeful, who is now clearly the second place contender in Mexico's presidential contest, didn't set a withdrawal timetable (AMLO clarifies stance on Mexican military force withdrawal from drug war).
López Obrador has been ridiculed for once suggesting that criminals should be hugged rather than shot, but anybody who follows the man is aware that he's given over to such altruistic flights of fantasy from time to time (López Obrador says he'll hug the bad guys). Last night AMLO said that his hands "won't tremble" when he has to take firm action against organized crime. And today his website published a detailed security plan, which includes the creation of a new national police force. In other words, federal cops will replace federal troops in the war against the drug cartels. A cosmetic change of insignia and uniforms, perhaps, but little more.
Josefina Vázquez Mota
The PAN nominee has been the most consistent of the three presidential candidates on drug war issues. From the very beginning Vázquez Mota has promised that she'll stick to the Calderón administration's program, and will keep military forces at the fore of narcotics interdiction and the anti-cartel offensive. She's never wavered in the slightest on that point. Josefina also plans to tweak the strategy in a second phase of the drug war, with greater emphasis on ridding local police forces of endemic corruption, and more training to prepare them for their primary law enforcement role once military forces are pulled from the fight (Josefina Mota calls for second phase in drug war, with focus on local police, courts). Vázquez Mota has never suggested reducing pressure against the drug cartels, or significantly changing the National Security Strategy designed by the president she formerly served. The Times article implies otherwise, and that's unfortunate.
Moreover, Josefina has made it clear that she'll never deal with organized crime, as some have urged the country to do (No deals with criminals, says PAN candidate). Vázquez Mota has promised there will be no respite for narco terrorists.
My observations
Whoever takes office as Mexico's next president on Dec. 1 will not dramatically alter the drug war strategy anytime soon. The war is a reality of life here, every single day. People die, horribly mutilated bodies are discarded in very public places as if they were trash, and an increasingly weary population wonders when, or if, it will all come to an end. Mexican military and police forces will have to remain fully engaged, regardless of what politicians may say publicly; there's simply no other option. Nearby Guatemala and Honduras are prime examples of countries which have been pushed to the brink by narcotics trafficking, and it's not an overstatement to say that both are in jeopardy of erupting into virtual civil war. No Mexican president, of any party, is going to let the same thing happen here.
Rather than fretting over what this country's new president may or may not do in the next 72 months, Washington should address the fact that the United States is the biggest drug consuming nation on the planet. Insatiable U.S. demand, coupled with an inexhaustible supply of high powered weaponry and cash moving south, created and continue to sustain Mexico's endless agony.
A footnote: When Peña Nieto was in the U.S. visiting government officials in November 2011, a Mexican national columnist claimed the PRI nominee assured them that if elected, he would "do whatever they told him to do." I suspect that comes much closer to the truth than anything the candidate has said during the long campaign.
Feb. 19 - NY Times finally figures it out: in Mexican drug war, Enrique Peña Nieto = Felipe Calderón
Sept. 6 - Peña Nieto transition team confirms: Mexican army will remain on the streets
July 8 - Mexican voters got suckered on drug war
June 14 - Calderón tells Wall Street Journal, "violence in Mexico is declining"
Related topics
More evidence Mexican drug war strategy is working, as violence shifts south: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/02/more-evidence-mexican-drug-war-strategy.html.
"Dear friends in the United States - please, no more assault weapons to Mexico": http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/02/dear-friends-in-united-states-please-no.html.
Mitt Romney talks tough on U.S. drug demand: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/01/mitt-romney-talks-tough-on-us-drug.html.
Obama: U.S. drug demand responsible for damage done to Mexico: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2011/12/obama-us-drug-demand-responsible-for.html.
Why the Calderón strategy has been the right one: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/12/calderon-strategy-has-been-right-one.html.
Why the L.A. Times just doesn't get it: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/11/why-la-times-just-doesnt-get-it.html.
Mexico's Continuing Agony: http://mexicogulfreporter-supplement.blogspot.com/2011/11/mexicos-continuing-agony.html.
The Daily Obscenities of Mexico: http://mexicogulfreporter-supplement.blogspot.com/2011/11/daily-obscenities-of-mexico.html.
47,515 have died in Mexico's five year drug war: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.mx/2012/01/47515-have-died-in-mexicos-five-year.html.
Survey reveals massive disconnect in Mexico between drug trade and violence: http://mexicogulfreporter.blogspot.com/2011/11/survey-reveals-massive-disconnect-in.html.
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