Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Greek debt default a "given," says European banker -- not "if," just "when"

Wolfango Piccoli, director of the London office of the Eurasia Group, says it's inevitable -- Greece will default on its sovereign debt. "The question is (just) about the timing," he told CNN in a report carried by the network today. Key excerpts:

"The timing is important because European authorities are scrambling to build a "firewall" that will protect banks and other Euro area nations from the fallout of a Greek default. The first step is to overhaul an existing bailout fund for Europe, which is expected to be officially approved by all 17 Eurozone nations by the end of October. The goal, analysts say, is to create conditions for Greece to default in an organized way, rather than an abrupt collapse that could cause chaos in global financial markets.

"Euro area officials have said repeatedly that Greece will meet its obligations and avoid a default. Yet the inevitability of a Greek default has become conventional wisdom in financial circles. "The debt level of Greece is not sustainable," said [one expert]. "No matter how much austerity, they will not be able to pay their creditors. At some point in time, they are going to default."

"The argument is that Greece owes more money than it can realistically repay, considering that its economy has been in recession for years and is not expected to turn around any time soon. For the past 15 months, Greece has been kept afloat by billions of euros in bailout money from the International Monetary Fund and its European 'partners.'"

My two cents worth: Don't let the bankers and money manipulators fool you. There will indeed be chaos in global financial markets when Greece goes under -- maybe later this month.

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